My Top China eCommerce Predictions for 2018

James Baillie — Founder & CEO of JetStream

Starting with the obvious; China ecommerce GMV will grow by about 30% — The uptake in internet use combined with middle class wealth combined with improved and wider logistics infrastructure will all play a part to push the GMV up by around 30% in 2018.

China is just getting started when it comes to ecommerce growth.

Its not all about Tmall — JD.com gave Tmall a good run on singles day, for me they were the most impressive on that day. JD/Tencent have just invested in VIP, Kaola is growing and many category sites are doing $300m+ in GMV.

Kaola will be the biggest mover of all cross border sales channels — Already this site generates more cross border GMV than Tmall Global, its a player for all categories. With a network of almost 400m consumers thanks to parent company NetEase, they are on the prowl in 2018.

China is becoming more competitive brand vs brand. Its amazing that some of the brands I pitched to 3 or 4 years ago are not in China yet. Big £100m retailers and brands that are a fit for the market are behind the 8 ball now and no idea why they dont pull the trigger — entering China has never been easier with the right solutions and partnerships.

Its not the end of the game, China is still is a massive opportunity but probably in the last 3 years, brands selling in China has doubled so consumers have more choice.

Cross border sales into China will grow but brands GMV for a brand doing between $1m and $3m a year will stagnate — Its pretty easy to grow a single brand cross border from zero to $1m through the right channels and partnerships, maybe even up to $2m or $3m but with the amount of brands seeking to crack China, competition is tough. After getting to the first $1m from the comfort of your own warehouse, brands need to localise some stock, play on domestic marketplaces and start to invest in marketing. Its the only way to hit it big for single brands.

Luxury sales will grow — With both Tmall and JD adding luxury brands to their channels and Secoo IPO raising more than $100m, expect these 3 to fight it out in the luxury space in 2018. My winner here will be Secoo who have 25% of the luxury market in China.

New brands into the market have a time to shine — Data suggests that consumers are searching for different brands. Tired of the usual suspects in the main categories, they will be looking for quality products from global brands more and more in 2018.

WeChat stores will be a must for premium and luxury brands — With more than 800m users, having a store on WeChat is a must for brands with some exposure or have a small budget in 2018 to lay the foundations on this channel.

There will be new lower cost cross border delivery options into China — Today, if you ship to China, your delivery partner probably uses EMS as their final mile provider and resells their solution with a margin. Word on the street is EMS are starting to set up globally now and will roll out a direct import from international locations that’s faster and cheaper for brands.

Forget a .com desktop site, its over, its all mobile and WeChat now — Something like 90%+ of all sales on single day came from a mobile device. Desktop sites are just for show; mobile and WeChat sites are for grow!

Chinese will travel and spend like never before in 2018 — around 150m trips will be made from China in 2018 spending $300bn on goods. Its time that brands who have brick and mortar stores made sure they have China payment gateways and partners with affiliates in China to promote their brand.

An international crossborder ecommerce entrepreneur, advisor, startup specialist and business leader helping Fashion, Beauty, Luxury, Baby, Home, & Lifestyle brands enter and grow online in China and other emerging markets like Japan, Asia, India and Middle East through retailers, marketplaces, localised .com or mobile stores.

Related posts:

Hello and welcome to my 2nd annual best-of list for the year in film! What a year its been. We’ve had some truly groundbreaking blockbusters, countless fresh and innovative indies, and tons of…

The face of the workforce in the USA and in the world has changed due to the outbreak of COVID-19 with many now working from home. At V&V Management Solutions and Blessings4Ever Home Care Agency…

Some experts believe that successfully managing your weight comes down to a simple equation: If you eat fewer calories than you burn, you lose weight. Sounds easy, right? Then why is losing weight so…