Preparing to Feed 11 Billion People

The U.N. says the population will be 11 billion by 2100, the book Empty Planet disagrees. Farmers are among those that need to shift their thinking.

Empty Planet by Darrell Bricker, John Ibbitson is my favorite book so far this year. Through extensive academic and global on-the-ground research, they convince the reader that fertility rates are falling faster than most experts can explain and instead of worrying about unstable population growth, we need to think about massive population declines.

Fear about a growing global population is rampant everywhere. Some countries worry about feeding exploding populations and others worry about the environmental implications of the Earth supporting 9 billion people in 2050 and 11 billion people in 2100. A lot of people are doing their part, farmers have a roll up your sleeves and produce more food attitude, tech companies promise to make an app or device that will save us all, and parents are choosing to have fewer children.

Bricker believes the global population will reach 8 to 9 billion and then decline. Why is are his numbers so different from the stated facts we are used to hearing? How is he so convincing? Well, the stats we know are from the United Nations (U.N.). We trust the U.N., it’s a reputable body. The problem is, in this case, their data are wrong today.

The United States is the third most populous country in the world with about 320 million people or nearly 5% of the global population. The U.N. data from 2015 to 2020 state that the average American woman has 1.9 children. According to the Center for Disease Control, the rate was 1.8 children per woman from 2015 to 2018 and they predict the rate to be 1.7 children per woman in 2019.

The United States rate is well below the rate used in the U.N. models. Bricker shows similar cases of overstated fertility rates around the world. He believes the rates in China and India are also too high. If these large countries are wrong today, then the U.N. numbers will become more overstated throughout the century.

There are major implications for miscalculating the global population. Governments, businesses, and individuals are preparing for the…

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